Projecting 2027 New Launch Price to Identify Underpriced 2026 New Launch Developments

Why Are We Doing This Analysis?

The way to make money in real estate investing in Singapore often has to do with finding the most advantageous entry price, and there are several ways to sieve out opportunity in this area.

1. Look at a potential new launch in a specific area, then reference it against a resale property to see if the resale property is priced at a significant discount to the new launch. Ideally, the resale property should not be far off in terms of fundamental attributes — and that points to one way of finding undervalued property.
2. Utilize land sale data — a large part of that published data comes through GLS land sale tender results. Specifically, by using this year’s tender results, we can project the launch price of new launch projects that will be built on this tendered land and launched next year. Projecting forward this way lets us establish a new price benchmark that will most probably be floating around the market next year. We then use this as a benchmark to compare against the selling price of property that is on the market in 2026.

That is the purpose of this entire analysis: to take a forward-looking view of 2027 prices, then reference it back against whatever is actionable in the market in 2026, with the goal of finding a value buy opportunity.

We are Decoupling Expertise

We are a real estate investment consultancy that specialises in helping investors procure a 2nd investment property.

Our expertise is grounded on 2 fronts:

1. Tax Optimisation — Finding the most tax optimised strategy for investment minded property owners to procure a second property
2. Research — Analyst by trait, operator of our own dual property portfolio by experience. We pride ourselves on conducting profit-focused, practical research to help our clients and readers shortlist investment property and validate purchase decisions.

You are now reading a sample of our research work. Feel free to drop us a text if you would like to seek a 2nd opinion on your investment decision.

The Mechanics: How 2026 Land Sale Prices Project 2027 New Launch Pricing

This opportunity to gauge next year’s pricing recurs every year, because GLS tender results give us visibility on land cost well before a single new launch is planned around that site. From the land PSF PPR (per square foot per plot ratio) that a developer actually paid, we build up to an estimated launch PSF through a sequence of cost and margin layers, each calibrated against what developers are actually budgeting for in the current market:

1. Acquisition taxes and legal costs — the standard suite of costs incurred on top of the land price itself.
2. Construction cost — a per-square-foot add-on set by market segment, since CCR builds carry a materially higher cost base than OCR or RCR builds.
3. Financing and capital-carrying cost — the cost of capital tied up over the development period.
4. Professional fees and marketing overhead — consultants, agents, and campaign spend.
5. Developer margin — applied on top of the resulting breakeven cost, which is what produces the estimated launch PSF.

Segmenting the resulting estimated launch PSF by location gives a workable gauge of what new benchmark price is likely to enter the market in 2027, project by project. Notably, the markup from land to launch price runs roughly 92–116% across the 2026 GLS set, and it is not evenly distributed by segment. CCR sites sit at the low end of that range and OCR sites at the high end.

2026 GLS Land Sale and its 2027 Projected Launch Price

The table below sets out every 2026 GLS award to date, segmented by market classification, with the land cost, the built-up breakeven cost, and the resulting estimated launch PSF at a 15% developer margin.

Land tender prices are drawn from URA’s Government Land Sales (GLS) tender data, January to September 2026. Breakeven and launch PSF figures are DE’s own build-up, per the mechanics set out above.

Identifying the List of Developments With Balance Units Still Available in 2026

A forward-looking 2027 price benchmark is only useful if we identify our actionable surface area. To do that, we review all 2026 new launch projects with balance units that we can act on. This becomes the pool where we identify the price gap versus 2027 new launches. The larger that price gap, the more attractive the entry.

Comparing Current Selling Price Against a Future Comparable 2027 New Launch

This section paints the most valuable insight in this analysis. We mapped the 2026 actionable projects against their comparable 2027 new launches, then identified the price gap between the two. The goal is to find a wide price gap — the wider the gap, the more conducive the entry. On the flip side, if a 2026 project is priced higher than its 2027 comparable, that marks a project we should avoid.

Potential Value Entry Picks

Of the nine projects in the working opportunity set, two come out as candidates worth a closer look, and three come out as cases to pass on. We’ve cross-checked each against DE’s own published reviews of these developments, where they exist, to see whether this year’s land-cost evidence is consistent with what we’d already flagged.

Lentor Gardens Residences

Candidate — land price lower than future GLS land sale price

The +9.6% gap against Lentor Central is the strongest reading in the set on a pure land-cost basis. We have already covered this project in more depth in our oversupply review and in a separate in-depth valuation study that stress-tests the underpriced case against three benchmarks and different margin scenarios. That study’s conclusion is scenario-dependent rather than a flat yes, so we would point readers there for the full working rather than compress it into a single line here.

The land-cost read is backed by fundamentals, not just timing. Kingsford’s $920 psf ppr land bid is the lowest of all 7 Lentor launches, on the 2nd-largest plot in the area with the most efficient density. Resale demand for a Lentor address is already validated by Lentor Modern, Calrose, and Panorama, and the deep-dive valuation study found the 3-bedroom and 4-bedroom quantum genuinely undercuts 4 of 6 comparables at the Low entry scenario.

Dunearn House

Candidate — land price lower than future GLS land sale price

The gap against adjacent land runs +10.4% versus Dunearn Road and +4.0% versus Holland Plain — a consistent read in the same direction from two separate GLS sites. This is also not a new signal for us: our own review of Dunearn House had already flagged the adjacent Plot 2 land, bought at +15.2% above Dunearn House’s own land cost, as the same price-catalyst mechanic now being confirmed by this year’s broader GLS data. Our own review also noted the shortest exit window we modelled, around 4 years, was the weakest case for this project; an 8–10 year hold is the more defensible horizon.

The location itself carries the case beyond land cost alone. Our own review points to an aspirational, centralised CCR address capturing affluent upgrader flow from within Bukit Timah and neighbouring HDB districts, a distinct position against the area’s older and less efficient freehold stock, limited future 99-year new-launch supply, and proximity to multiple highly sought-after primary schools. The land drew 9 bids, the highest of any 2026 GLS site — itself a signal of developer conviction in the location.

Narra Residences

Avoid — land price higher than future GLS land sale price

This is the pairing where the land-cost signal runs against, not for, the balance units. It is worth noting this isn’t a new blind spot — our January 2026 review of Narra Residences explicitly flagged the risk that a future Dairy Farm land parcel could be bid down and undercut Narra’s own pricing. The September 2026 GLS data confirms that this is exactly what happened. We’d treat this as the risk case playing out as anticipated, rather than a fresh concern.

The land-bid history reinforces the caution. Only 2 bidders came for the site, the lowest interest of any comparable 2026 or 2027 GLS parcel, and the developer still paid a roughly 23% premium over the second bid to win it. Narra also sits in Dairy Farm, a sub-district with no HDB or BTO population of its own to draw resale demand from, has no reputable primary school within 1km, and pricing is its only real differentiator against neighbours Botany and Dairy Farm Residences.

Vela Bay

Avoid — land price higher than future GLS land sale price

The −8.7% gap against Bayshore Drive is consistent with our own review of Vela Bay, which had already set a cautionary walk-away line above $2,800 psf for this project. Vela Bay’s current $2,846 is already past that line, and the land price paid for the adjacent Bayshore Drive site hasn’t shifted that read.

The pricing risk sits alongside genuine strengths. Vela Bay is first-mover on the single most strategic plot in the Bayshore Precinct, directly beside the MRT, riding a district transformation already underway rather than a distant promise, with diversified exit demand from Bedok BTO upgraders, East Coast condo upgraders, and Siglap landed downgraders, and weak resale competition from mostly ageing 1980s–2000s stock nearby. Set against that is the record land cost itself — at $1,388 psf ppr, the highest of any 2026 OCR launch — and the fact that the precinct’s own 7,000 BTO units carry a 10-year MOP, making that upgrader pool a delayed rather than near-term catalyst.

River Modern

Avoid — gap to future GLS land sale price already closed

The +0.8% gap is the smallest in the set, and the read here is the most decisive of the three avoid cases. Our own review of River Modern had already placed an overvalue ceiling above $3,200 psf; River Modern’s current $3,502 sits well past that ceiling, and the thin 24-unit balance leaves little room for the read to change.

River Modern still has real attributes working in its favour: 3 minutes’ walk to Great World MRT and 2 to the mall, within 1km of River Valley Primary, and resilient River Valley demand that isn’t foreign-buyer-dependent the way other CCR pockets are. The developer also sacrificed margin to price at parity with River Green rather than pass on its higher land cost. Against that sits strong competition from River Green and Zyon Grand, its two closest launched comparables, and a supply overhang from back-to-back area launches plus the still-unlaunched River Valley Green Parcel C.

Conclusion: Action Check — Checklist Before You Act

With these insights in hand, before you act, use this checklist to ensure you’ve done your due diligence before making any commitment. Feel free to drop us a text if you need help with this process.

1. Check for price movement since launch day. A project can look underpriced against a 2027 benchmark and still have moved meaningfully off its own original launch price. Get in touch and we’ll run the calculation against the specific stack and unit you’re looking at.

2. Confirm the remaining unit is still in an optimal stack and layout. Balance units are balance units for a reason. Since this isn’t a launch-day purchase, verify there isn’t a structural drawback in the specific stack, facing, or layout that explains why it’s still on the market.

3. Do a further fundamentals deep dive on the specific project. This analysis is built on land cost and pricing alone. Confirm the underlying fundamentals — supply pipeline, tenure, unit mix, catchment — are still sound before committing capital.