Meyer Blue New Launch Condo Review  – 4 Key Investment Risk

Project Launch Date

Project was launched on 5 Oct 2024

50% of the development units was sold at an average price of $3,260 psf.

• 2 Bedroom units from 667 sqft were sold at a average of $2.0 mil at $3,019 psf.
• 3 Bedroom units from 990 sqft were sold at $3.0 mil at $2,985 psf
• 4 Bedroom units from 1518 sqft were sold at $4.5 mil at $2,950 psf
• 5 Bedroom units from 1905 sqft were sold at $5.6 mil at $2,936 psf

Project Balance Unit Post Launch

Who is this article written for

This article is specifically written for the following categories of home buyer.

• Investment minded buyers that are looking to understand the key risk and reward of buying into Meyer Blue
• Buyers that are looking to consider Meyer Blue vs other new launch development like Emerald of Katong
• Buyers that are considering the purchase of Meyer Blue for both home stay and investment, but are unsure of its viability as an investment asset.  

Key Takeaway 

Getting straight to the point, expect to walk away with the following considerations. The goal is to equip you with the necessary data and information to make your own decisions.

• Investment risk associated with buying into Meyer Blue 
• Investment strategy to adopt when buying into Meyer Blue
• Investment thesis Meyer Blue vs Emerald of Katong 

We are Decoupling Expertise

Before committing the next 5 mins reading this article, it helps to know who is behind the pen. 

We are a team of specialist realtors that specialises in helping our readers research, shortlist and purchase investment properties. 

We believe in delivering informational value upfront without obligations through practical, detailed and data backed long form articles. 

If you like a more personalised solution tailored to your current consideration drop us a whatsapp text. 

General Information 

To set the context, there are generally 3 different sub regions or belts in district 15, each comes with a different level of prestige and real estate value. 

The Meyer belt is pride to be the most prestigious, followed by the Amber belt which is situated along Amber road and lastly finishing it off with the third most prestigious Siglap stretch. 

Meyer Blue is a new launch to be launched within the Meyer belt. 

Land Cost and Breakeven Price

Given the project is not launched yet, we will need to make reasonable estimates for its launch price based on its land bid price and breakeven cost.

A point of reference to note is that developers typically priced in a 15% to 20% margin on top of its land breakeven cost. We will use this as the key assumption to derive our estimated launch price for Meyer Blue. 

Referencing other D15 Launches and Projects’ land cost and margins

The Continuum is a new launch project, launched in 2023. It is situated further out from the Meyer belt, more towards the Dakota MRT sub district. 

Meyer Mansion is a project launched in 2020 and has since TOP. It is located in the Meyer Belt, close to Meyer and serves as the closest proxy to Meyer as a comparison. 

Estimated Launch Price

Below is a table, simulating the different developer margin and its respective estimated launch price. As you can see Meyer Blue is a premium project, to be priced at the higher end of the spectrum, with potential launch prices ranging from $3,130 psf to $3,266 psf. 

Key Investment Risk Associated with Meyer Blue 

As an overview there are 4 key risk to be noted when adding Meyer Blue to your real estate portfolio.

1. Developer price drop post launch
2. Blockage of sea view in 10 to 15 years time
3. Lack of price catalyst to propel price appreciation 
4. Lack of sales volume to drive price increase

#1 – Developer price drop post launch 

For those uninitiated, one driver of price appreciation for a new launch is developer’s price staging.

To optimise for profits, developers adopt different pricing strategies in reaction to market acceptance during launch day and the uptake preceding launch.

There are two camps when it comes to developer’s pricing strategy. The first entails developers launching at a lower price and staging upwards as units get sold.

The other with developers pricing the development at a premium, setting benchmark prices and adjusting downwards accordingly if units do not move.

With the looks of Meyer Blue estimated launch prices, and its developer’s historical pricing behaviour, there is a chance that Meyer Blue may fall into the 2nd camp.

Developer’s historical pricing strategy – Meyerhouse

Referencing Meyerhouse, a development launched by UOL. In 2019 it launched at a high of $2,600 psf and subsequently dropped prices to $2,400 psf in 2020, and subsequently price staged back to $2,600 in 2021 and 2022.

It’s noted that 2019 marks the start of the pandemic year in which demand is muted. But we have seen many other new launch developments that launched during this period, maintaining price constant without price decrease, like Treasure at Tampines.

Similar pricing behaviour for Meyer Mansion

Referencing the price trend of another development Meyer Mansion developed by another developer. We see similar pricing behaviour of launching at a high price on launch date, followed by a price decrease when take up was not as healthy as expected.

#2 – Blockage of sea view in 10 to 15 years time

A factor to note if you are considering the purchase of a unit facing the sea in Meyer Blue.

There is a high chance the sea view will be obstructed in 10 to 15 years time with the development of the Long Island plan.

A quick overview, the long island plan consists of a land reclamation project along the coastal strip that stretches across the Meyer belt and the Amber belt. Along this reclaimed land high rise residential estate would be built, potentially obstructing the sea view of Meyer Blue.

So it is important to be mindful that the premium that you will be paying for a sea view unit in Meyer Blue may not translate to the investment upside that a premium sea view unit is supposed to rein in.

#3 – Lack of price catalyst 

Real estate investment is often made complex with elaborate frameworks. In actual fact it revolves around heuristics, buyers making shortcut decisions by relying on comparable price references. 

To put things into perspective, a grain bowl priced at $12 dollars is deemed to be expensive when benchmarked against a $6 dollar Chicken rice. But the same grain bowl becomes cheap when benchmark against a $22 dollar cafe brunch.

In the case of Meyer Blue, it is the premium cafe brunch. It needs to find a more premium benchmark to induce its prospective buyers to see value in purchasing it.

For now Meyer Blue will serve as premium benchmark price reference to benefit the price appreciation of its comparable resale developments like Meyer Mansion.

Referencing the same challenge faced by Meyer Mansion during its launch in 2019.

Meyer Mansion, a development neighbouring Meyer Blue that was launched earlier in 2019, faced the same challenge of being a price leader in the market.

It launched at a benchmark high of $2,765, there wasn’t any higher priced development for it to be a proxy against.

Its prices tanked from 2019 to 2022 and only see a breakthrough in 2022 and 2023, with the launch of Liv @ MB and The Continuum to prop prices up.

Meyer Mansion prices only appreciated with the presence of price catalysts 

No price catalyst in near term for Meyer Blue

Referencing the URA master plan, there are no GLS land plot surrounding Meyer Blue to be launched for GLS bidding in the near term.

This meant that Meyer Blue owners would have to rely on the organic inflationary price appreciation as a driver for growth in the absence of any foreseeable price catalyst.

#4 – Lack of Sales Volume

Another factor that drives price appreciation is transactional volume. Transactional volume is triggered by the convergence of demand and supply.

The issue with Meyer Blue and properties in the Meyer Belt is that they are mainly freehold properties held by high income homeowners with no rush in cashing in their profits.

So when purchasing a unit in Meyer Blue with an investment objective, be mindful that you will need to adopt a longer holding duration for price appreciation to play out.

Price Gap Analysis vs Closest Comparable Development 

One or the strength of a development in the Meyer Belt is that there aren’t many equivalent comparisons.

The closest proxy we can use to reference against Meyer Blue’s pricing is Meyer Mansion, which TOP in 2024 and the next closest proxy is Freehold 2023 new launch The Continuum.

As you can see, factoring in a 15% profit margin, at $3,130 psf, Meyer Blue is the price leader that will be establishing benchmark prices for these developments.

At the current point in time, there isn’t a notable upper bound, comparable development for Meyer Blue to be priced against.

Price Gap Analysis vs Resale Condo in Meyer Belt

Similar situation, when comparing Meyer Blue prices against comparable older resale development within the Meyer belt.

In fact, with the launch of Meyer Blue, there could be a case to consider buying into comparable Freehold development priced lower than Meyer Blue.

Unit Size Estimation – Referencing Meyer Mansion 3 Bedroom Unit

Prior to conducting a purchase quantum comparison for Meyer Blue. Similar to estimating its launch prices, we will need to make similar estimates for its square footage.

We will use the square footage of both Meyer Mansion and Liv @ MB as reference for the square footage of a smallest entry level 3 bedroom unit in Meyer Blue.

Quantum Comparison vs D15 New Launch

While pricing is a factor for consideration, quantum is equally important when it comes to affordability.

Particularly for Meyer Blue, and its Meyer belt counterpart. It is important to note that as purchase quantum extends beyond the $3.0 mil to $3.5 mil range, the option of getting a landed property in OCT region starts coming into consideration.

Quantum Comparison – Meyer Belt Resale Condo

Reviewing the historical transacted prices for comparable resale condo in the Meyer Belt, you can see that purchase quantum range from $3.0 mil to $3.2 mil. 

Assuming the launch of Meyer Blue at $3,100 + psf, you will be looking at a premium of $200k vs its resale counterparts. 

Future Buyer’s Dilemma – Meyer Blue or Landed property ?

It helps to be mindful that prospective buyers looking to consider the purchase of your unit at Meyer Blue, with a resale price quantum of $3.5 mil and above, would be caught in a dilemma of purchasing a freehold landed property as well. 

Similarly, for yourself, if you got a $3.5 mil budget, it is worth thinking through the option of purchasing a landed property vs a condo. 

Supply side considerations

In this section, we will touch on the topic of scarcity. The benefit of buying into larger 3 to 4 bedroom units is that there will always be limited sale listings at any one point in time. Most owners purchase larger units for homestay and less for pure investment. 

Let’s explore the supply dynamics for Meyer blue vs other new launches. For the purpose of this analysis, we tabulate the total no of 3 bedroom units available in each development located within 500m radius from the new launch and also account for the number of listings available within the property portal featuring 3 bedroom units. 

The ideal is to optimise towards supply side scarcity, with a smaller number of 3 bedroom units available and lower no of listings available within property portal. 

3 Bedroom Supply and Listing Comparison – Meyer Blue 

3 Bedroom Supply and Listing Comparison – Chuan Park Residence 

3 Bedroom Supply and Listing Comparison – Emerald of Katong

Supply scarcity ratio comparison

Tabulating the supply vs listing for each new launch development into a comparable ratio, by taking no of listings divided by the no of 3 bedroom units available, we are able to have an ideal of what we are dealing with in terms of supply and competition for each of these new launch projects. 

Referencing the table you can see greater scarcity and less listing competition for Meyer Blue and Chuan Park in comparison to Emerald of Katong new launch

Is Meyer Blue new launch worth purchasing ?

The million dollar question is, is it worth buying a 3 bedroom unit in Meyer Blue ? 

Assuming you were to evaluate this strictly from an investment perspective, in terms of potential capital appreciation, return on capital, optimising towards the shortest holding duration of 4 to 5 years. 

You should look beyond Meyer Blue to consider other new launch opportunities like Chuan Park Residences and Emerald of Katong. 

For more on this topic, check out Chuan Park Residences Review and Emerald of Katong Review. 

Investment framework to adopt when purchasing Meyer Blue

For those attracted to Meyer Blue for its homestay factor, you should first consider if there is a better option with resale development within Meyer Belt. 

These resale developments like Meyer Mansion, Meyerhouse, Meyerise, could potentially provide a lower quantum purchase with an option for immediate occupancy, while still having room for appreciation, leaning against the premium pricing for Meyer Blue. 

For those strictly looking to commit to a purchase of a unit in Meyer Blue, optimise for a unit facing the landed enclave instead of the sea front facing units and expect to put in a longer holding duration of 8 to 10 years. 

Floor Plan Meyer Blue

Looking for a competitive edge when selecting a new launch condo ?

You will need to marry both head knowledge with ground knowledge. 

By ploughing through this 9 page article, you would have gained significant head knowledge on what kind of condo development you should be looking at. 

But the recipe to a successful real estate purchase is often the marrying of 2 components. Head knowledge and experienced on-ground execution. 

The next step to take will be to get someone to shortlist actual units that fit your budget, selection criteria and to take you through the groundwork of visiting all these units. 

Sounds like a lot of work ? – Outsource it to a specialist

Yes, doing it right when purchasing a new launch condo is not an easy feat. Consider having it managed end to end by a specialist. 

• First hand project launch price updates via whatsapp
• Multiple new launch showroom visit appointment
• Unit selection and stack analysis
• Financial calculation and planning
• Launch day execution 

Drop us a whatsapp text and ask us any question.