How to Make the Most Money When Buying Your First Private Condo

Introduction

This article was conceived after being inspired by the several questions that came in from readers that share distinct commonality in profile, perspective towards real estate, motivation and objective.

This article is specifically written for readers that are looking to purchase your first private condo. You are either starting out, looking to purchase your first private condo, skipping the new EC route as your average monthly income prevents you from being eligible for one — or you are looking to upgrade from your current BTO to your first private condo.

Either way, these readers share a common trait: they see their first condo as a mechanism and opportunity for profit making, beyond a place of dwelling to satisfy their child and spouse lifestyle needs.

The Structure and Objective of This Article

Making money from flipping condos is part science, part art — a large part of it thrives on pattern recognition, relying on the internal feedback loop that is built upon repeated observation of condo developments that bring about high profits versus condo developments that bring about sub-optimal profits.

In some sense it bears semblance to how a venture capitalist makes bets on startups — identifying the Uber that works in San Francisco and mapping the same playbook to find Grab in South East Asia.

This article is an aggregation of all the different “patterns” that we have observed over the years of researching for different client engagements and managing our property portfolio. We will be structuring the output into key pillars that you can optimise towards to make the most profits out of your first condo purchase.

We Are Decoupling Expertise

We are a real estate investment consultancy that specialises in helping investors procure a 2nd investment property.

Our expertise is grounded on 2 fronts:

• Tax Optimisation – Finding the most tax optimised strategy for investment minded property owners to procure a second property
• Research – Analyst by trait, operator of our own dual property portfolio by experience. We pride ourselves on conducting profit-focused, practical research to help our clients and readers shortlist investment property and validate purchase decisions.

You are now reading a sample of our research work. Feel free to drop us a text if you would like to seek a 2nd opinion on your investment decision.

#1 – Optimising for the Right Asset Class

The broad private condo universe can be broken down into different sub asset classes. For the purpose of profit making, there are 4 key sub asset classes that you would need to pay special attention to. Each sub asset class comes with its own strengths and weaknesses and has varying demand on financial resources.

Your first action step as a first-time condo buyer is to consider which sub asset class best fits your investment objective while still fitting within your financial constraints.

1. New Launch Condo

Assuming due diligence has been exercised and the right development is selected, new launch condos as a sub asset class bring about the fastest path to sizable capital appreciation.

Its speed to capital appreciation is mainly attributed to the alignment in objective amongst its buyers. Most, if not all, of the buyers buying into a new launch development are in it to make profit. This sets the stage for a very collaborative benchmark price building process during the TOP of the new launch. Each wave of new launch owners with differing investment holding horizons will seek to maximise their selling prices to exit with maximal profit, setting the benchmark price for the next wave of sellers to exit.

As compared to mature resale condo developments, owner profile and objective differ — some purchase it to live in it for retirement, some purchased it a long time back when prices were low and are willing to sell at a price that is below the market. The path to profit is lengthier and not as well defined.

Having said that, new launch condos come with their own set of challenges for first-time condo buyers:

• A. Premium priced – It is often priced higher than a typical resale development and sets a higher bar for buyers in terms of affordability.
• B. Alternative place of dwelling – Given that a new launch condo takes 3 years to be fully constructed, you will need to find an alternative place of dwelling for 3 years. We discuss the option of renting for 3 years while waiting for a new launch to be constructed within the article link inline.
• C. Extra due diligence – Given that you are purchasing a unit strictly off a showflat model, a siteplan and floorplan, extra due diligence is to be exercised navigating the hype and sales pitches that surround a new launch.

2. TOP Condo

TOP condos are essentially new launch condos that are fully constructed. They address several challenges that come with a new launch condo.

They are fully constructed and ready for immediate occupancy, allowing you to skirt around the problem of having to find an alternate place of dwelling. They come brand new and reduce the amount of renovation cost you will need to incur as compared to an older resale condo. Their key strength comes from the fact that, aside from a new launch condo, they are the development with the newest lease life in the area — an attribute that many resale buyers look out for.

The key considerations when buying into a TOP condo are as follows:

• A. Check to ensure the price gap between TOP condo and new launch remains wide – The first litmus test is to make sure that the TOP condo must be cheaper than a new launch condo. Whenever the price gap gets too close, it is a sign that your TOP condo is overpriced.
• B. Be ready for a longer holding duration than a new launch condo – Given that you are paying a premium to the first owner to buy into the TOP condo, be ready to wait out for at least another 6 years to sell out to the next wave of buyers.
• C. Capitalise on new launch buyers that are looking for a quick exit – Given that new launch units sell out in waves, TOP condo buyers should seek to capitalise on new launch sellers looking to exit quickly to negotiate for a good entry price.

As a sidenote, we wrote specifically about the investment case for TOP condos within the dedicated article link inline.

3. Resale EC

Resale ECs are ECs that have fulfilled their 5-year minimum occupation period and are eligible for sale in the resale market. This sub asset class offers the highest affordability and is often priced the lowest amongst new launch condos and TOP condos.

The rationale is that brand new ECs are often sold at a subsidised price — 30% lower than private condo — to first-time buyers. These initial buyers are then willing to pass on part of the savings with a lower selling price to the next wave of MOP EC buyers, while still enjoying a sizable profit.

For a MOP EC buyer, the approach arises in the same way as TOP condo buyers. The goal is to source for a unit within a development that has just MOP’d and capitalise on sellers looking to exit quickly to work towards an advantageous entry price. After which the protocol remains the same — hold onto the asset for a medium term of 5 to 6 years and aim to exit with a sizable profit.

The downside to resale EC mainly comes from its location. ECs, given their subsidised pricing, are often located in emerging districts that are further out from the city centre like Punggol, Sengkang and Tengah. This may require some compromise in terms of liveability for buyers that are looking for a more central location.

We wrote specifically about how to profit from resale EC within the dedicated article link inline.

Sub-Asset Class Comparison Summary

Receive Complimentary Research Checklist – Only for Readers

While focuse heavily on identifying the right project. It is equally, if not more important to avoid locking our capital into a cash trap. By request of many readers and clients, we compiled our research and created a checklist for 7 negative attribute you should be wary of when evaluating a new launch project.

Drop us a text -> and we will send you the 10 page research checklist.

#2 – Optimising for Supply Asymmetry

In our study of high growth new launches and best resale condos in Singapore, there is one consistent factor that contributes to the success of developments that deliver outstanding profits — and that is supply asymmetry.

But supply asymmetry is not as simple as it seems. To the untrained eye, all private condos can be viewed as equal. To a learnt property investor, private condo supply can generally be categorised into the following archetypes:

1. Ageing condos – condo age 10 years and above
2. Boutique condos – condo with unit count below 200
3. Freehold condo – condo with a freehold status, often priced at a premium
4. TOP condo – condo that has recently TOP’d within 1 to 3 years from completion
5. Integrated development – condo that is linked to an MRT station and a shopping mall
6. Mega development – condo with more than 800 units

The point of highlighting these different archetypes is to set the context of what can be deemed as a favourable supply asymmetry situation — or the flip side, an oversupply situation.

The typical ideal state setups that have been observed are as follows:

1. Undersupply of new private condo in mature residential districts dominated by ageing condos – This is the typical setup for RCR neighbourhoods like Toa Payoh, Queenstown and Redhill.
2. Undersupply of affordable, efficiently sized new condo in residential districts dominated by small to mid-sized freehold condos – This is the typical setup for “old wealth locations” like Bukit Timah, Newton and Novena.
3. Undersupply of new mega-scaled development in an area dominated by small boutique condos – This is the setup for Parc Esta in Eunos and Jadescape in Marymount.
4. The only integrated development in a sizeable and mature HDB district – This is the setup for Pasir Ris 8 in Pasir Ris and Paya Lebar Quarter in Paya Lebar.

On the contrary, there are also oversupply situations to be mindful of:

1. Lentor – 6 new launches with over 2,954 units launched since 2022
2. Media Circle – projected 3 new launches with up to 1,703 units
3. Dairy Farm – 5 new launches with a projected total unit count of 2,210 units

#3 – Optimising for Demand Asymmetry

While supply is one vector that has a significant impact on your first private condo’s profitability, demand is a vector that can ease or even override a less than optimal supply side setup to produce outperformers.

Exit buyer demand flows for private condos can be broken down into the following sub-categories.

1. BTO Upgrader Demand

These are BTO owners that have fulfilled, or are going to fulfil, their minimum occupancy period and are looking to upgrade to a private condo within the same neighbourhood.

For this class of exit buyer demand, it is important to understand that not all BTOs should be viewed equally. When evaluating the strength of BTO upgrader demand in an area, it is important to think through and evaluate the profile of these BTO owners — consider if they comprise mainly of driven, upwardly mobile families that are prime suspects to become condo upgraders.

In addition to that, consider if they have a strong tendency to upgrade within the same district. For smaller feeder neighbourhoods like Buangkok and Fernvale where amenities are less established, these BTO upgraders tend to upgrade to private condos in larger adjacent neighbourhoods like Sengkang and Punggol.

Examples of locations that illustrate a very strong BTO upgrader setup would be Tampines. We recently conducted research for Pinery Residences in one of our engagements and identified an emerging BTO pipeline of over 18,000 BTO units achieving their MOP status over a period of 8 years.

Tampines is a good example of how strong demand flows can overpower the competitive supply dynamics in the area. Sengkang, Woodleigh/Bidadari, Punggol and Tengah would fall within the same vein. They all portray a sizable, largely homogenous population of BTO owners generally of the mid to mid-high income class.

2. Resale HDB Upgraders

From experience, evaluating the strength of upgrader flows from this category of upgraders needs to be done with caution.

Resale HDB upgrader flows are only valuable in districts where resale HDBs are of high value and owners can exit with significant profit, giving them enough capital to rotate into a private condo.

Examples of locations with proven resale HDB upgrader strength include Toa Payoh, Queenstown, Bukit Merah, Kallang, Bishan, Marine Parade, Pasir Ris and Tampines. The key indicator to look out for would be areas with reports of high-value HDB resale transactions, where the resale HDBs are of a decent age.

3. BTO / HDB / EC Upgraders from Less Centralised Districts

Taking a multi-dimensional view at demand flows, another prominent “migration” pattern that can be observed — and has contributed to the price appreciation of multiple private condos — is the demand flow of BTO, HDB and EC upgraders from less centralised locations to a more central location.

This flow is often driven by young families relocating due to a child’s primary school and due to familiarity with the centralised location as this is where their childhood home is and where their parents currently reside.

Locations that have benefited from this flow include:

• Serangoon / Lorong Chuan – absorbing flows from Punggol, Sengkang
• Clementi – absorbing flows from Bukit Batok, Jurong West, Boon Lay
• Upper Thomson – absorbing flows from Woodlands, Canberra
• Holland / Commonwealth – absorbing flows from Jurong West, Pasir Panjang

4. Old Wealth Flow

This is a demand flow to look out for when you are looking to purchase your first private condo in premium locations like Tanjong Katong, Bayshore, River Valley and Bukit Timah.

These are demands generated by the children of wealthier families living in these premium locations. The common behaviour is to have their children live close to them, with financial assistance often rendered to help fund the private condo.

If you are planning to purchase your private condo in areas like Bukit Timah, River Valley, Holland Village and the Tanjong Katong area, you will need to divert your attention to this flow and start thinking about product market fit from this buyer’s perspective — and spend less time thinking about HDB upgrader flow.

We further articulated thoughts on how to capture the old wealth flow in our analysis for River Modern in River Valley.

Demand Flow Type Reference Table

#4 – Optimising for Emerging Districts

Specifically for first-time condo buyers, this vector for optimisation matters more and could set the property owner up for strong, healthy capital appreciation that can be rotated into subsequent property investments.

Having said that, there are only a few significant emerging districts with major, meaningful transformation plans worth paying attention to. Meaningful transformations are defined as transformations that have a positive impact on property price appreciation.

The following are common patterns that indicate the government is committed towards developing an emerging township:

1. Commitment and announcement of a sizable pipeline of new BTO builds in an area
2. Relocation of a reputable primary school, junior college or international school to the new township
3. Building of MRT and LRT lines in the area

Other than these major developments, there are many minor transformation plans that are often touted as district transformations but may not have a meaningful impact on property price appreciation.

Historically, townships that have seen real property price appreciations are townships like Punggol and Woodleigh, both show the common traits described above.

Potential upcoming emerging districts where opportunity abounds include the following:

1. Tengah New Town

• BTO pipeline – projected 30,000 BTOs at maturity
• School relocation – ACS Primary relocating from Barker to Tengah by 2030
• Transport line development – Jurong Region Line

We dive deeper into analysing the risk and opportunity for Tengah in this analysis pertaining to Tengah Garden Residences Review.

2. Chencharu – Yishun New Residential District

• BTO pipeline – 10,000 BTOs by 2040

Lesser in scale as compared to Tengah, Chencharu — like Tampines North — is an inner-urban district expansion. Similar to how Tampines North builds off Tampines Central’s growth, Chencharu builds off Yishun’s growth. Take this with a pinch of salt. We plan to investigate further into the investment upside for Chencharu in a separate article.

3. Bayshore Waterfront Township

• BTO pipeline – 7,500 BTOs at maturity
• Supply side advantage – out of approximately 12,500 residential units to be built, only 30% are reserved for private condos
• Transport line development – Bayshore MRT launched in June 2024

We dive deeper into reviewing the potential of the Bayshore area in our analysis article on Vela Bay Review.

4. Greater Southern Waterfront

• BTO pipeline – 9,000 new BTO flats

This is an interesting location that is more suited for a premium 2-bedroom or smaller 3-bedroom compact play. Rental yield for investment property in the area is also known to be very strong. We are watching a Keppel Club GLS site in the area, with a new launch project soon to be launched this year. Check the 2026 list of new launches within the link inline to get updates.

Emerging Districts Reference Table

Mini Deep Dive Series – Identify Opportunity in Emerging Districts

Mini information sharing series – designed for readers, delivered via WhatsApp.

• The real risk and opportunity behind well-known “emerging” projects
• The understated, overlooked projects in emerging townships that fit the BTO + school + MRT transformation pattern
• Entry opportunities to front run opportunities in emerging districts

Designed for first-time condo buyers and aspiring upgraders who want to position themselves early in the next “Punggol/Woodleigh-type” townships, and set up a healthy capital appreciation that can be rotated into future properties.

If you would like to be included in this mini series, drop us a WhatsApp text to indicate your interest. We will lock in capacity to add you to the next intake.

#5 – Optimising for Product Market Fit

Let’s borrow a mental model from product managers designing software. There is a concept known as product market fit — it advocates the designing of a product that fits a market’s customers’ demand.

In your case, when procuring your first private condo, you need to be mindful that you are not only buying it for yourself. You are buying it on behalf of your future buyer, and of course you will be charging them a premium for it.

Assuming we are aligned on that “stewardship for profit” mentality, it will be natural to put ourselves in the shoes of our future buyer and ask what kind of product they aspire to own.

To save you the work, we will be listing some of the typical setups for product market fit.

1. OCR Product Market Fit

• Target Buyer – Family, middle income, HDB upgrader, aspires to own a condo, values space for storage and children, often has a helper
• Product Fit – Large 3-bedroom, not 3-bedroom compact. Position for large units at most affordable quantum. Proximity to MRT as a secondary priority. Proximity to primary school as priority.
• Example of Product Type – 3 bedroom, 4 bedroom, resale EC, affordable private condo away from MRT

2. RCR Product Market Fit

• Target Buyer – More varied, dual-income family with no kids, families upgrading from OCR condo
• Product Fit – Balance liveability with affordability, as RCR condos are priced higher on a psf basis
• Example of Product Fit – 2-bed 2-bath units, 2-bed plus study, 3-bedroom compact, 3-bedroom standard. There is a need to manage overall sale quantum. Proximity to MRT as priority for 2-bedroom units as exit buyers value quality of life and convenience.

3. CCR Product Market Fit

• Target Buyer – More varied, affluent singles, dual-income with no kids, high-income family
• Product Fit – Combination of prestige plus quantum affordability. CCR locations are plagued with older-era products that have large, inefficient floorplates inflating overall purchase quantum. It is advantageous to position towards a modern, efficient floorplate priced at the same if not lower overall quantum versus these older freehold condos.
• Example of Product Fit – Smaller but liveable units in modern CCR launches like Martin Modern, River Modern, River Green, Zyon Grand, Skye at Holland

We expanded on CCR real estate investing in the following article: Can CCR Condos Be Profitable Again? Why Investors Are Quietly Buying In.

#6 – Optimising for Conventional Layouts and Minimal Renovation Cost

Using this section as a placeholder for common mistakes that we observe amongst first-time condo buyers.

Assuming the objective of profit maximisation, you should avoid purchasing units with non-conventional layouts, such as units with oval-shaped living rooms, units with built-in lofts, penthouse units, and misfit 2-bed plus study units that try to market themselves as an affordable 3-bedder.

To further elaborate, consider the following “3-bed 2-bath” 897 sqft unit layout at Kingsford Waterbay. It is often marketed at a price that is significantly below the 3-bedroom unit price — for example, marketed at $1.3mil for a 3-bedroom unit, while the average going price for 3-bedders in Kingsford Waterbay and the area hovers between $1.5mil to $1.8mil.

If you were to conduct a physical viewing, you will quickly realise that one of the bedrooms is extremely small, almost like a study room. In actual fact, the developer built it as a 2-bed plus study but sells buyers the proposition that this can be marketed in the future as a 3-bedder. This backfires as the 897 sqft layout was a misfit amongst 3-bedders and faced difficulty finding buyers in the area.

Along the same vein, it is often unwise to procure an old but sizable unit and invest significant capital in renovating it. The interior design and renovation cost often ends up as sunk cost and future buyers may not pay a premium for it. Unlike the landed property game — where you can act as a pseudo developer redeveloping an ageing property and earning a premium for it — it is safer to buy a new product, invest minimally, and resell it as a blank slate to the next owner.

#7 – Optimising Shareholding Structure for Future Decoupling

Given we named our business Decoupling Expertise, you will know we are big proponents of a dual property portfolio over putting all your eggs in a single property.

For the uninitiated: decoupling is a process whereby one spouse sells his or her share to the other spouse in a jointly held property, freeing one name for the purchase of a second investment property without ABSD.

We are convicted in the investment case for having a second property. Through our own experience managing our properties and advising clients, we realise that it is extremely difficult to monetise the capital appreciation made in a homestay property. The only way for one to realise the paper gain in a homestay property is to downgrade, either to a less centralised location or to a smaller property.

To put things into perspective, picture yourself seated on a $500k capital gain from your current 3-bedroom condo that you and your family are living in. To realise this $500k profit, you would have to convince your wife to move to a further out location or to downgrade to a smaller or older property.

On the flip side, the monetisation pathway for a dual property portfolio is drastically different. With your homestay property untouched, you are free to sell, buy or rent out your second property in line with the lifestyle that you choose to lead.

The ideal state looks something like this: you aim to purchase the lowest cost private condo for homestay, paying down its loan to its lowest possible quantum. You focus leverage on the second property, renting it out and accumulating capital gain and principal repayment via the rental income monthly. At any point where you choose to exit the rat race or face an imminent retrenchment, you can liquidate the second property to realise the $300k to $500k capital gain with minimal or no loan obligation on your homestay property.

Stepping out of our usual objective analyst role — we think this is a better way to game the system and a better way to live life, as compared to constantly being under the shackles of a home loan that ties you to a 9-to-5 job.

Having said that, the shareholding structure for a private condo purchase can comprise the following options:

• Default – 50-50 joint ownership
• Disproportionate share ownership – 80-20 joint ownership – results in cost saving during decoupling
• Single property ownership – 100% ownership under 1 name – 1 name is free to purchase second property immediately

To prevent content bloat, we refer to the following articles if you are interested in this topic:

• Should I upgrade to a bigger property or should I buy a second property?
• Decoupling Property Singapore – The Complete Guide
• What share split should you consider for decoupling?
• How To Identify Projects That Can Make $1 Million Profit Over An 8-Year Holding Duration
• How to Determine If It Is the Right Time to Sell Your Private Condo or EC?

Info Series – First Time Condo Upgrader

In line with this article, we have received several feedback from readers to run an expanded info series to deep dive into using each of these methods to create an optimal shortlist of high-growth condos one should be looking at.

With this in mind we will be launching a series administered via a private WhatsApp group chat that covers the following pointers, tailored to individual budget and search criteria:

• New launch vs TOP condo vs resale condo – which is most ideal
• Development and unit attribute to prioritise
• Supply and demand review for target location
• Risk and opportunity review for target location or development
• Shortlist creation

Drop us a text if this is relevant and you would like us to include you in the information sharing series.