Introduction
The new launch landscape for 2026 is one where investor’s attention is highly skewed towards a few notable new launches, like Thomson Reserve. As with all things, human psychology is highly susceptible to group think, and we applaud you for standing out as the minority to take an interest in evaluating Lucerne Grand as an investment consideration.
We must admit, we were also guilty of underestimating the potential of this new launch due to the fact that its predecessor Sora performed poorly at a sub-optimal 23% sale on launch day, compared to its peer J’den located in Jurong East that sold 88% on launch day. But our research has proven us wrong – Lucerne Grand as a project and resale condos in Lakeside in general have shown interesting performance. Lucerne Grand may turn out to be a strategically smart way to capture the upside that comes with the greater Jurong Lake District transformation.
Research Framework
As pretext, being a research-first investment consultancy, it is never our priority to promote a particular project. Specific to this, we would like to be prudent and avoid evaluating Lucerne Grand with any upside coming from the Jurong Lake District transformation.
To do this, we will structure our analysis into 2 parts. Part 1 will revolve around evaluating Lucerne Grand and the broader Lakeside area “as it is”, considering the base case outcome of investing into the development with no upside coming from the Jurong Lake District transformation. Only in Part 2 will we then evaluate the potential upside of the Jurong Lake District transformation.
We urge you to take the same approach for your personal evaluation of the project. Do not be sold or convinced to buy simply based on a notion that the Jurong Lake District transformation is going to boost your property price. Given that is an uncertain outcome that is hard to price in, only proceed if the current state situation in itself is already convincing enough from an investment perspective.
Key Research Question Part 1 – Lakeside Baseline Property Growth Outlook without Jurong Lake District Transformation
- Is resale demand healthy on the ground for Lucerne Grand even without Jurong Lake District Transformation taking effect?
- Is it wise to buy new launches in the Lakeview location as compared to other locations?
- What is the current competitive landscape like within Lakeside itself and does Lucerne Grand have an edge?
Key Research Question Part 2 – Jurong Lake District Transformation impact on Lakeside Condo and Lucerne Grand investment case
- Will the Jurong Lake District Transformation really have a positive upside on property price?
- How long will the Jurong Lake District Transformation take?
- Is buying into Lakeside the best way to ride on the JLD narrative?
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Our expertise is grounded on 2 fronts:
- Tax Optimisation – Finding the most tax optimised strategy for investment minded property owners to procure a second property by using strategies like decoupling property.
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You are now reading a sample of our research work. Feel free to drop us a text if you would like to seek a 2nd opinion on your investment decision.
Basic Project Information
To get everyone on the same page, below is a summary of the basic project facts for Lucerne Grand. Of notable mention in the location analysis section, Lucerne Grand will be the condo development nearest to the Lakeside MRT station and is also within 1km radius of Rulang Primary.
| Attribute | Detail |
|---|---|
| Development Name | Lucerne Grand |
| GLS Land Plot | Lakeside Drive GLS site |
| Developer | City Developments Limited (CDL Polaris Properties Pte. Ltd. and CDL Polaris Commercial Pte. Ltd.) |
| Location | Lakeside Drive, Jurong Lake District, Singapore |
| District | District 22 – Jurong / Lakeside (OCR) |
| Neighbourhood | Lakeside / Jurong Lake District precinct, within walking distance of Jurong Lake Gardens and near Jurong East regional hub |
| No. of Units | 575 residential units |
| No. of Blocks | Multiple blocks; exact block and storey count to be confirmed |
| Tenure | 99 years leasehold |
| Nearest MRT | Lakeside MRT Station (East-West Line) |
| Nearest School(s) | Rulang Primary School (within 1km) |
| Expected TOP | 2030 |
Location Analysis
We will use this section to get our bearings at two levels. At a micro level, we will establish context on where specifically Lucerne Grand is located vis a vis other competing resale condos. At the broader macro level, we will look into how Lakeview as a neighbourhood plays into the broader narrative of the Jurong Lake District transformation.
Micro Level – Lucerne Grand’s location vis a vis other Lakeview Resale Condos
Lucerne Grand is the newest project, located nearest to the Lakeside MRT. It sits right next to Lakefront Residences which TOP’d in 2015. Another notable point location-wise is that Lucerne Grand’s closest competitors in terms of age and lease life are Sora and Lakegarden – both new launches launched in 2023 and scheduled to TOP in 2027 – and neither of these competing developments are located within walking distance to Lakeside MRT.
Location – Lucerne Grand within Lakeside MRT Area
Macro Level – Lakeview neighbourhood role in the Jurong Lake District Transformation
The Jurong Lake District transformation is broken up into 3 segments, with Jurong East or Jurong Gateway area as the core commercial hub and the Lakeside area positioned as the residential, live-and-play precinct. The final Lakeside Gateway precinct is currently a white site to be developed into a tourism node, connecting the Lakeside precinct to the Jurong Gateway precinct.
From an investment thesis standpoint, this points to an interesting proposition to look deeper into – will it be wiser to capture the upside of the Jurong Lake District transformation by investing in a Lakeside project over a Jurong East project, assuming that price is more affordable in the Lakeside area and the environment is more suited for genuine owner-family homestay as compared to a city-centre vibe that is more suited towards tenants?
Lucerne Grand – Lakeside location amongst Jurong Lake District Transformation
Source: URA Jurong Lake District Master Plan
Macro Level – Lakeview location vis a vis other neighbourhoods
Looking beyond the micro location of Lakeview itself, we take a broader overview to understand Lakeview neighbourhood’s role vis a vis other neighbourhoods. There are a few neighbourhoods to take note of from both a future buyer flow perspective and a competitive perspective.
Tengah is a neighbouring district to be noted when buying into the Lakeview area. As established in our previous analysis for Tengah Grand Residences, we take a bullish view of Tengah as a growth emerging district. But from Lucerne Grand’s perspective, we view it as a potential source for BTO upgraders potentially upgrading to a Lucerne Grand in the future. Similarly, Boon Lay neighbourhood is a source of upgrader demand, given the attributes of condo developments there are less enticing as compared to those in the Lakeview area.
Clementi is viewed as a more premium and centralised buyer’s alternative to Lakeview. We see potential spillover demand from upgraders familiar with living on the west side of Singapore who cannot afford a unit in Clementi, looking into the Lakeside area as a viable alternative.
Lakeside District and its surrounding Neighbourhood
#1 – Is resale demand healthy on the ground for Lucerne Grand even without Jurong Lake District Transformation taking effect?
Back to the research question we set out to address at the onset – specifically to evaluate if it is worthwhile investing in Lucerne Grand with the pessimistic assumption that there is no upside to be derived from the Jurong Lake District transformation. The first consideration is to conduct a resale demand analysis to evaluate the on-ground demand for current Lakeview resale condos.
The resale demand for condos in the Lakeview area is healthier than expected, using annualised capital gain as a proxy for buyer demand. As pretext, annualised capital gain as a metric indicates the average percentage growth in price for your property – to illustrate its impact on profits, a $2M investment in a condo with 4% annualised capital gain will return a $433k gross profit.
What is interesting to note is that the baseline annualised capital gain for resale condos in Lakeview is very healthy, trending above the average 3% growth at 3.7%. There are multiple resale developments within Lakeside like Caspian, The Lakeshore and Lakeholmz that show annualised capital appreciation of between 4.3% to 5.9%, significantly outperforming the benchmark.
It is also critical to note that these 3 outperforming developments are also located closest to the MRT station and Rulang Primary School. This provides good precedence for Lucerne Grand, as it is located even closer to the MRT than these 3 developments.
Resale Demand for Lakeside Resale Condo – using Annualised Capital Gain as proxy
| District | Project | Avg PSF ($) | Ann. Gain (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lakeside | Caspian | 1,577 | 5.9 |
| Lakeside | The Lakeshore | 1,494 | 5.2 |
| Lakeside | Lakeholmz | 1,307 | 4.3 |
| Lakeside | Lakepoint Condominium | 891 | 3.4 |
| Lakeside | The Lakefront Residences | 1,696 | 3.3 |
| Lakeside | Summerdale | 988 | 2.9 |
| Lakeside | Lakeville | 1,776 | 2.6 |
| Lakeside | Parc Vista | 1,154 | 1.9 |
| Lakeside | Cluster Average | 1,360 | 3.7 |
Resale Development located near Lakeside MRT and Rulang Primary tends to outperform
#2 – Is it wise to buy new launches in the Lakeview location as compared to other locations?
Again on the pretext that the Jurong Lake District transformation has limited upside, we compare the current state performance of Lakeside condominiums vis a vis resale performance in other comparable neighbourhoods. Generally, Lakeside resale performance emerges the strongest amongst the neighbourhoods in consideration, outperforming Clementi, Bukit Batok and Jurong East.
Resale Condo performance Lakeside vs other Neighbourhoods
| District | Avg PSF ($) | Ann. Gain (%) |
|---|---|---|
| Lakeside | 1,360 | 3.7 |
| Jurong East | 1,634 | 3.0 |
| Bukit Batok | 1,201 | 3.3 |
| Clementi | 1,875 | 3.3 |
| Thomson | 1,798 | 3.6 |
Lakeside resale condo performance outperforms Jurong East
Referencing back to the broader Jurong Lake District transformation playbook, the general assumption is that condo developments in Jurong East would benefit the most from the transformation due to its centrality, greater connectivity as the MRT interchange and its positioning as the commercial hub in the west. Interestingly, the data tells a different story – Jurong East resale condos in aggregate barely made the benchmark in terms of annualised capital gain. Take this with a pinch of salt as we are working with limited data and there are only 2 resale condo developments around the Jurong East area.
But directionally it sheds important insights: Jurong East, due to its attractive attributes as the commercial and transportation hub with 3 malls surrounding it, is often priced at a premium. This premium pricing results in a less advantageous entry price for developments like J Gateway that compresses overall capital gain. This adds interesting context towards the thesis that it could be more advantageous to buy into the more affordable Lakeside area – where Lucerne Grand is located – to capture the Jurong Lake District upside, as compared to buying into a premium development like J’den or J Gateway.
Lakeside Resale Development vs Jurong East Resale Development
| District | Project | Avg PSF ($) | Ann. Gain (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lakeside | Caspian | 1,577 | 5.9 |
| Lakeside | The Lakeshore | 1,494 | 5.2 |
| Lakeside | Lakeholmz | 1,307 | 4.3 |
| Lakeside | Lakepoint Condominium | 891 | 3.4 |
| Lakeside | The Lakefront Residences | 1,696 | 3.3 |
| Lakeside | Summerdale | 988 | 2.9 |
| Lakeside | Lakeville | 1,776 | 2.6 |
| Lakeside | Parc Vista | 1,154 | 1.9 |
| Lakeside | Cluster Average | 1,360 | 3.7 |
| Jurong East | Westmere | 1,167 | 3.7 |
| Jurong East | J Gateway | 2,100 | 2.2 |
| Jurong East | Cluster Average | 1,634 | 3.0 |
Caspian – Top Performing Lakeside Resale Condo
The Lakeshore – Top Performing Lakeside Resale Condo
Lucerne Grand potential resale demand vs Thomson area (Thomson Reserve)
Partially addressing a question often raised by readers comparing Lucerne Grand vs Thomson Reserve – directionally, from the resale performance of existing developments in Lakeview vs the Thomson area, both locations are somewhat on par in terms of performance. Thomson area averages a 3.6% annualised capital gain as compared to Lakeside area at 3.7%. Refer to the full data table in the appendix for a granular breakdown of performance by development.
#3 – What is the current competitive landscape like within Lakeside itself and does Lucerne Grand have an edge?
The key vectors of evaluation for competitive analysis in the Lakeside area are: age of development, location within 1km radius of Rulang Primary School, distance from Lakeside MRT station, and resale affordability as dictated by initial entry price.
Based on these 4 factors, aside from entry price, Lucerne Grand has competitive parity or advantage over all of the Lakeside condo developments. It is especially superior over its closest competitors Sora and Lakegarden Residences, which are both priced at a premium, are not within 1km of Rulang Primary School and not within walking distance of Lakeside MRT station. From a pricing standpoint, as long as Lucerne Grand is priced close to Sora and Lake Grande with a slight premium, it will have a significant edge over most if not all of the resale developments in the Lakeside area.
Competitive Comparison – Lucerne Grand vs All Lakeside Resale Condo
| Project Name | Age Cluster | Within 1 km of Rulang Primary School | Distance from Lakeside MRT, walking status | Average PSF |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lakepoint Condominium | Ageing | Yes | 450 m, walking distance | 891 |
| Summerdale | Ageing | Yes | 700 m, not within walking distance | 988 |
| Parc Vista | Ageing | Yes | 750 m, not within walking distance | 1,154 |
| The Mayfair | Ageing | No | 1,000 m, not within walking distance | 1,234 |
| Parc Oasis | Ageing | No | 1,500 m, not within walking distance | 1,238 |
| Lakeholmz | Ageing | Yes | 650 m, not within walking distance | 1,307 |
| Lake Life | Mature | No | 1,800 m, not within walking distance | 1,458 |
| The Lakeshore | Ageing | Yes | 400 m, walking distance | 1,494 |
| Caspian | Mature | Yes | 300 m, walking distance | 1,577 |
| The Lakefront Residences | Mature | Yes | 300 m, walking distance | 1,696 |
| Lakeville | Mature | Yes | 600 m, not within walking distance | 1,776 |
| Lake Grande | Mature | Yes | 600 m, not within walking distance | 1,861 |
| The Lakegarden Residences | New | No | 1,200 m, not within walking distance | 2,188 |
| Sora | New | No | 1,400 m, not within walking distance | 2,322 |
| Lucerne Grand | New | Yes | 50 m, walking distance | TBC |
Gain Clarity – Side by Side Project Comparison
There are two projects that caught your attention launching in sequence and you are unsure which to commit to. This is where objective fact-based evaluation of both projects brings clarity to your decision-making process.
- Side-by-side pros and cons analysis of 2-3 projects you’re currently considering
- A second opinion on which project offers the best balance of profit potential and downside protection
- A refined shortlist of projects that best suit your investment objective
Drop us a text for a non obligatory Q&A
#4 – Will the Jurong Lake District Transformation really have a positive upside on Lucerne Grand Property Price?
We will now enter Part 2 of our analysis. In Part 1, we evaluated Lucerne Grand with a prudent lens assuming no upside from the Jurong Lake District transformation. In Part 2, we layer on the potential upside that may come along with the transformation.
In this first section of Part 2, we identify the actual catalysts that will come with the Jurong Lake District transformation and drive property price appreciation. From experience, it is important to separate hype from actual price drivers – there are many widely touted district transformation plans that lead more to increased tenant demand rather than actual Singaporean homestay buyer demand, which is the true driver for property price appreciation.
The table below details the key list of price catalysts that come with the Jurong Lake District transformation and how each affects property prices. In summary, the key upside catalysts we see are as follows.
1. Increased PR buyer demand for property in Jurong Lake District
As part of the enlarged white-collar manufacturing and engineering job base being created in the area, it will drive improved familiarity and desire amongst PR homebuyers to purchase their first home in the area or relocate from their current home to the Lakeside area. We see this influencing the PR buyer base more significantly, as they often do not own a car, are less entrenched by existing extended family dwellings and show a greater tendency to relocate to a location near their place of work. For local buyers, considerations are more varied – the priority of living near their child’s school or parents may still take precedence.
2. Improvement in MRT line infrastructure to have a spillover effect on Lakeside
We foresee the development of the Jurong Regional Line (JRL) to have a secondary but not direct upside for properties in the Lakeside area. Given the JRL does not directly connect Lakeside MRT to new MRT nodes in the west – it connects directly to Jurong East as the key MRT interchange – the accessibility upside is directly attributed to Jurong East. Spillover effect will come when buyers are willing to make a compromise for a more affordable property in Lakeside, which is two MRT stops away from Jurong East MRT station.
Jurong Regional Line Transformation Impact on Lucerne Grand
Property Price Catalyst that comes with Jurong Lake District Transformation
| Catalyst type | JLD transformation element | Catalyst to property prices for local/PR buyers? | How it affects (or doesn’t affect) prices |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTO / upgrader base | New public-housing pipeline around JLD (especially Tengah) plus about 20,000 planned homes within JLD itself | Yes – strong long-term support | Tengah is the main new HDB town in the West, built precisely to plug into Jurong East / JLD via the Jurong Region Line. Over time, this creates a very large pool of Singaporean/PR HDB owners whose natural upgrade choice is a JLD or Lakeside condo. The 20,000 new homes within JLD also “anchor” more locals in the district; many will eventually upgrade within the area. This is genuine owner-occupier demand, not just rental demand. |
| Job growth (industry & collar type) | 100,000 new jobs in and around JLD, with a focus on financial and professional services, tech, advanced manufacturing, sustainability and innovation-linked firms | Yes – mainly white-collar buyer pool | The transformation is tilted towards PMET-type jobs rather than purely industrial or blue-collar roles. These are the people who can realistically afford private condos and are most likely to buy (rather than just rent) near where they work. If even a modest fraction decide to live near JLD instead of commuting from other regions, that materially deepens the local and PR buyer base for projects such as Lucerne Grand. |
| Transport & connectivity | Jurong Region Line (JRL), future Cross Island Line (CRL) JLD station, and an Integrated Transport Hub at Jurong East | Yes – reduces “West penalty” and broadens buyer catchment | New lines and an integrated hub make JLD much more accessible from the rest of Singapore. For local and PR families, this shrinks the perceived distance to the CBD, one-north, Changi and other job nodes. Once travel times are shorter and more predictable, more buyers are willing to accept a West-side address in exchange for better value or larger space, which supports both primary market pricing and future resale values. |
| Lifestyle & amenities | Jurong Lake Gardens (national garden), new Science Centre, future tourism and waterfront lifestyle node (hotels, attractions, F&B), plus a walkable, car-lite lakefront town | Yes – for own-stay families; tourism effect is neutral to mild | The permanent “hard” amenities – a 90-hectare national garden, a flagship Science Centre by the lake, continuous park connectors and family-oriented waterfront spaces – make JLD, especially Lakeside, a much more compelling place to live for local families. That supports willingness to pay for lake-facing and park-side condos, and encourages long-term owner-occupation. Tourism assets mainly boost vibrancy and rental demand; on their own they do not guarantee higher prices, but they help keep the district lively and relevant, which indirectly supports long-run values. |
#5 – How long will the Jurong Lake District Transformation take?
Based on the timeline below, we still see the JLD transformation as a mid to long-term catalyst. Within the near term, resale demand for Lucerne Grand will still hinge on the current state buyer demand in Lakeview.
| Catalyst type | Approx. time to fruition from 2025 | Start of realisation (from 2025) | What has already started / key near- to mid-term milestones |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTO / upgrader base | 0-10 years | Already underway (2025 onwards) | Multiple Tengah BTOs launched and some already completed, first residents moving in. More Tengah projects targeting TOP around 2027-2028. Upgrader cycles (MOP + 5-10 years) will feed HDB owners into JLD/Lakeside condos over the next decade. |
| Job growth (industry & collar type) | 5-25 years | Early phases from ~2025-2030 | JLD officially positioned as second CBD with 100k jobs and 20k homes by 2040-2050. Zoning and land-release work for office and mixed-use plots ongoing. First wave of commercial and institutional projects expected over the next 5-10 years, with job base ramping thereafter. |
| Transport & connectivity | 3-15 years | First effects from ~2027 | Jurong Region Line under construction; first stages planned to open from 2027-2029 (Stage 1 around mid-2028). New Science Centre at Jurong Lake Gardens is targeted to open in 2027, coinciding with early JRL phases and putting more footfall into Lakeside. Cross Island Line JLD station to follow later in the 2030s. |
| Lifestyle & amenities | 0-10 years | Already underway (2025 onwards) | Key portions of Jurong Lake Gardens already open and operational. New Science Centre by the lake under development, planned opening around 2027. Progressive rollout of lakefront leisure, F&B and tourism uses over the coming decade, deepening the “live by the lake” proposition. |
#6 – Is Buying into Lakeside the best way to ride on the JLD narrative?
Interestingly, we take the position that investing in a Lakeside project like Lucerne Grand is a smarter way to capture upside from the Jurong Lake District transformation narrative than investing in Jurong East. Jurong East developments like J Gateway and J’Den have impressive fundamentals, but due to the excessive premium being priced into these developments, we believe it would be more advantageous to position your entry in a more residential environment offering more affordable resale price points to resale buyers. This is also supported by our earlier analysis showing above-average annualised capital appreciation rates displayed by Lakeside resale properties.
Lucerne Grand vs J’den Entry Price and Exit Price Comparison
| Project | Launch Date | TOP Year | Average Entry Price | Entry Price PSF (Rebased for GFA Harmonisation) | Project First Buyer Target Selling Price PSF (GFA Harmonised) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J’den | 2023 | 2028 | 2,390 | 2,557 | 2,857 |
| Lucerne Grand | 2025 | 2030 | NA | 2,500 | 2,800 |
Lucerne Grand – Estimated Launch Price
Based on the land bid price of $1,132 psf ppr and a land breakeven price of $2,181, we expect launch price to hover between $2,400 psf to $2,600 psf.
Lucerne Grand Launch Price Estimates by Margin Percentage
| Price/Cost Components | Details |
|---|---|
| Land Bid Price (psf ppr) | 1,132 |
| Land Breakeven Price (psf ppr) | 2,181 |
| Estimated Launch Price Based on Profit Margin | Price (psf) |
|---|---|
| 10% | 2,399 |
| 15% | 2,508 |
| 20% | 2,617 |
Lucerne Grand Entry Price Analysis
Given that the bulk of the investment puzzle for Lucerne Grand falls into the valuation and entry price analysis – and that entry price analysis varies greatly in accordance with personal budget and unit type – we reckon there is a need to take this on in a mini info series, conducted over WhatsApp.
Within the series we will cover the following topics:
- Establish price ceiling using 2026 new launches as proxy
- Establish price support using Lakeview and Jurong East previous launches as proxy
- Establish key entry price guide for target unit type
- Highlight key risk and upside to be noted
Drop us a text if you would like to reserve a slot for the info series.
Investment Summary for Lucerne Grand
Pros
- Best-in-class MRT proximity in Lakeside – Located ~50m from Lakeside MRT, closer than every competing development including Sora and Lakegarden Residences
- Within 1km of Rulang Primary School – A meaningful demand driver for owner-occupier families; competitors Sora and Lakegarden Residences do not share this attribute
- Strong baseline resale demand – Lakeside resale condos average 3.7% annualised capital gain, outperforming Jurong East (3.0%), Bukit Batok (3.3%), and Clementi (3.3%)
- MRT + school proximity historically correlates with outperformance – Caspian (5.9%), The Lakeshore (5.2%), and Lakeholmz (4.3%) are all near Lakeside MRT and Rulang Primary; Lucerne Grand is even closer
- More affordable entry into the JLD narrative than Jurong East – J’den and J Gateway carry premium PSFs that compress capital gains; Lakeside offers better value entry to ride the same transformation thesis
- Developed by CDL – Reputable developer with strong track record reduces execution risk
- Newest and most competitively positioned project in Lakeside – Competitive parity or advantage over all existing Lakeside resale stock on four key vectors: age, school proximity, MRT distance, and affordability
- JLD transformation upside optionality – Jurong Region Line (from ~2027), new Science Centre (2027), 100,000 projected jobs, and upgrader demand from Tengah BTO residents provide meaningful medium-to-long-term tailwinds
- Lakeside positioned as the residential/lifestyle node – More suited to owner-occupier family demand than Jurong East’s commercial-hub character, which supports sustained resale demand
Cons
- JLD transformation is a long-dated, uncertain catalyst – Job growth and connectivity uplift are 5-25 year horizons; should not be the primary basis for investment; near-term resale demand must stand alone
- JRL connectivity benefits Jurong East more directly – The Jurong Regional Line connects to Jurong East as the MRT interchange, not Lakeside directly; Lakeside captures spillover benefit, not primary connectivity uplift
Looking to purchase a unit in the new launch as a second property?
Check out the following articles for more insights on how to avoid ABSD:
- Decoupling Property Singapore – The Complete Guide
- How to buy a second property in Singapore without ABSD?
Other Potential 2026 New Launches that you can consider
- Full List – 2026 New Launch Condos to Look Out For in Singapore
- Thomson Reserve Review Previously Known as Thomson View En Bloc – Is this upcoming new launch worth investing in?
- How to choose the best new launch condo in 2026?
- Dunearn House Review – Turf City New Launch Condo
- Chuan Grove Review
- What upcoming 2026 New Launch Condo is undervalued and advantageously priced ?
