Thomson Reserve Review – Latest Investment Analysis (Previously known as Thomson View Enbloc)

Introduction

For the uninitiated readers, kudos to you for finding this research article. You must have exerted significant research rigor to get here. By nature of convention, our articles are often subverted under the high volume of agent’s youtube reviews.

We are a research focused real estate investment consultancy and this article is a documentation of our research for several clients’ inquiry into the investment feasibility for Thomson Reserve.

Getting straight to the point, as we conduct a holistic analysis for the project looking into its location, demand, supply dynamics and competition, we seek to address the following key questions that are pertinent to investors committing significant capital to this project.

Key questions to be addressed for Thomson Reserve investment

1. Is the hype real? – Is Thomson Reserve fundamentally that strong as an investment asset.
2. Given that a premium will be priced into the launch price. Is it still worth buying and at what price should we refrain from entering?
3. What are the key resale competition Thomson Reserve must outperform in order to win the hearts of resale buyers.
4. Key unit type and layout to avoid in Thomson area to avoid sub optimal profits.
5. Balloting – how to secure a unit if everyone is fighting to ballot for one?

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Our expertise is grounded on 2 fronts:

1. Tax Optimisation – Finding the most tax optimised strategy for investment minded property owners to procure a second property
2. Research – Analyst by trait, Operator of our own dual property portfolio by experience. We pride ourselves for conducting profit focused, practical research to help our clients and readers shortlist investment property and validate purchase decisions.

You are now reading a sample of our research work. Feel free to drop us a text if you would like to seek a 2nd opinion on your investment decision.

Basic Project Information

From an investment perspective, the setup for this project is very defined. It falls into the typical RCR project playbook – the similar setup that several high growth new launches like Jadescape and Chuan Park Residences enjoyed. This setup is often characterised by significant buyer demand for the established RCR location and supply shortage in new, mega scaled development in the location.

The key challenge for investors when it comes to this kind of setup is less focused on assessing the fundamentals of the project but revolves more around three aspects: rationalising whether it is worthwhile paying for the premium that the developer will price into the project; navigating to secure the optimal unit at an advantageous entry price; and setting the expectation for holding duration and not rushing your exit.

Location Analysis

We will use this section to establish our bearings and gain a brief overview of the key competing resale condos that we will need to take into consideration when evaluating Thomson Reserve.

Thomson Reserve is to be developed on an enbloc land site which Thomson View currently sits on. Using Thomson Plaza – the main mall in the Thomson area – as the main anchor point, and Upper Thomson MRT as the main MRT serving the immediate Thomson district, Thomson Reserve is located opposite Thomson Plaza with Upper Thomson MRT sitting adjacent to it, 400m away.

Immediate Resale Competition

From a competitive standpoint, there are 5 key competitors that we need to pay attention to: Thomson Three, Thomson Impression, Thomson Grand, Jadescape and AMO Residences. The bulk of the immediate competition within the Thomson area are older and smaller developments that will not pose an immediate threat to Thomson Reserve in terms of capturing future resale buyer attention.

Thomson Reserve location relative to resale competitor

Distance to Reputable Primary School – Ai Tong

Thomson Reserve is located within a 1km radius of Ai Tong Primary School. This serves as a draw for future buyers and an additional competitive advantage when teeing up against other resale condos within Thomson and the Sin Ming area, which are mostly within the 1km radius of Ai Tong but are older and further away from the MRT station.

1km to Ai Tong Primary – Thomson Reserve vs Resale Competitor

Proximity to MRT – Thomson Reserve vs Resale Competitor

Other Tertiary Institutions within the Location

A locational strength that must not be overlooked. Aside from the obvious draw for future resale buyers, the comprehensive array of reputable tertiary institutions plays a significant role in attracting families to pay a premium to relocate to the Thomson and Bishan area.

Within the vicinity there is an ecosystem of reputable primary schools, secondary schools and junior colleges that attracts family homestay buyers to purchase and stay over the long haul.

From experience, a family relocates into the area and stays for a 6 to 10 year duration, seeing their child from primary school through to secondary school.

This translates to stable supply and demand dynamics in the Thomson area, as compared to emerging districts like Media Circle which sees a property ownership profile dominated by investors and couples without kids, resulting in a more volatile supply and demand landscape.

Key Tertiary Educational Institute Surrounding Thomson Reserve

Resale Demand Analysis

This section serves to put a quantitative measure to the existing resale buyer demand in the Thomson area. The results also paint an interesting picture towards the kind of development that will do well and not do well in the Thomson area.

Thomson Resale Condos might not be as profitable as expected

Given that we started the article highlighting the unique RCR location strength that Thomson condos possess, diving deeper into the transaction data unveils a picture that aligns but falls below expectation. Using $100k profit per year as a benchmark for profitability – i.e. the goal is to make at least $400k with a 4 year hold and $500k over a 5 year hold – all 3 of the notable Thomson resale condos mostly fall below this benchmark.

Despite the decent location of Thomson Three, given its proximity to Upper Thomson MRT, it takes an average 7.2 years for its owner to make $417k and 8 years to make $632k.

The key takeaway is that while Thomson as a location provides strong locational fundamentals, the attributes tied to the development – like entry price, scale of development and layout – still play a large factor towards generating profits that can beat the benchmark.

We have written a dedicated article on the key attributes of high growth new launch projects, and will establish this further by highlighting two developments in the sections that follow.

Thomson Three Profitability

Thomson Impression Profitability

Jadescape sets record profit amongst Thomson Resale Condos

Jadescape on the other hand sets profits that easily beat the benchmark profitability of new launch projects islandwide. Its 3 bedroom units generated over $511k in profit over a 4.3 year hold, generating $120k per year.

And its 4 bedroom units generated $766k profits over a 4 year hold, generating over $191k profit per year. Note that Jadescape is a mega development with 1,206 units built over a sizable land plot, with layout optimised for efficiency.

Jadescape Profitability

Thomson Grand stands out as the underperformer in the location

On the other extreme, Thomson Grand underperformed and stands out as abnormal, with only $45k profit per year for its 3 bedder and $39k profit per year for its 4 bedder. What is counter intuitive right off the bat is that its 4 bedroom unit makes less money than its 3 bedroom units – and this points to the root of the issue.

Thomson Grand, despite sharing the same locational advantage as Thomson Impression and Thomson Three, has a layout issue. Both its 3 and 4 bedroom units come with a private lift built into the layout of the unit. While the intention is to position the development with a premium and exclusive feel, the excessive lobby space priced into the overall square footage is generally deemed inefficient in the eyes of resale buyers, resulting in a higher overall quantum due to its larger square footage.

Thomson Grand Profitability

The Necessary Attribute Thomson Reserve Must Have In Order To Be Profitable

The key takeaway from this section is that in order for Thomson Reserve to generate above average profit, it must possess characteristics that resemble or outperform Jadescape, and avoid the inefficiency that comes with Thomson Grand.

In-depth Study – Can Thomson Reserve be Jadescape 2.0?

Having established the fact that there is a divide between underperformers and outperformers, we believe significant diligence should be exerted to examine if Thomson Reserve has attributes that are comparable to or outperform Jadescape.

To prevent this article from bloating beyond an easy read, we will be conducting a mini info series specially for our readers. It will cover a point-by-point comparison of Thomson Reserve against Jadescape to ascertain if Thomson Reserve is a safe buy that can generate profits like Jadescape, or sub-optimal profit like Thomson Grand.

Price Benchmarking – Setting Price Support Level for Thomson Reserve

Given that an advantageous entry price plays a significant role in optimising profits for your Thomson Reserve investment, we will use this section to establish price support levels for Thomson Reserve using comparable resale and new launch projects.

At any point in time, if the launch price comes close to or falls below a support level, it serves as a useful indicator that the price is attractive.

Different Price Support Levels for Thomson Reserve Residences

Chuan Park Residences and AMO Residences as closest proxy for price support

From our perspective, Chuan Park Residences (launched Nov 2024, TOP 2028) and AMO Residences (launched 2022, TOP 2026) will provide the most context for price support. Chuan Park Residences in particular is located in Lorong Chuan and built on an enbloc land site similar to Thomson Reserve – its current average selling psf sets the benchmark for a price that has already been accepted in the market.

It has been recording transactions at an average psf of $2,650 and after rebasing for GFA harmonisation, it is positioned at a selling price of $2,836. We will use that as a yardstick for value entry – at any point in time, if you are able to achieve a sub-$2,8xx entry, the entry price could be advantageous.

Estimated Launch Price

Based on the publicly available enbloc land price, we make reasonable assumptions to project the estimated launch price for Thomson Reserve. We project launch price to range from $27xx to $29xx.

Projecting Thomson Reserve Estimated Launch Price using Enbloc Price as Reference

Thomson Reserve – Entry Price Guide Research

Setting an objective entry price guide built on sound assumptions prevents you from making emotional purchases. We have set out a dedicated Thomson Reserve entry price guide to help set guardrails to identify what is an undervalue entry and what is a cautionary overvalue entry.

Text to receive guide

Future Resale Buyer Demand Analysis

When purchasing a new launch it is important to purchase with the target future resale buyer profile in mind. Understanding the future buyer flow gives you a good idea of how sizeable and sustainable the buyer demand is for Thomson Reserve as a project. We have identified 3 key buyer flows for this project.

#1 – EC, BTO Upgraders from the outskirts

This is a proven buyer flow that has resulted in the strong performance of several city fringe launches like The Orie and Elta. These are buyers that have profited significantly from the sale of their ECs and BTOs in emerging estates like Punggol, Sengkang and Tampines.

From a familiarity standpoint, due to the concentration of reputable primary and secondary schools in central areas like Bishan and Toa Payoh, a significant portion of these buyers spent their childhood in areas like Thomson and Bishan.

Hence from a psychological and aspirational standpoint, they would always want to “migrate” back to the central districts, given that many of them originally balloted for a BTO or EC in the suburban area mainly due to affordability reasons.

From our experience, this is one of the strongest buyer flows to tap on. The buyers are motivated, financially adequate and come with high loan eligibility due to their age.

#2 – Resale HDB Upgrader from Bishan, Toa Payoh, Ang Mo Kio

These are buyers looking for asset progression, trading out from their current resale HDB in Bishan and Toa Payoh at high value. Given that most of them do not have an alternative source of dwelling to live in, they are precluded from purchasing new launches and will go for TOP condos like Thomson Reserve at its point of TOP.

#3 – Resale Condo Upgraders

These are condo owners trading up from their older resale condo in the Bishan, Thomson and Lentor area to purchase a newer TOP condo when Thomson Reserve achieves its TOP.

Overview – Source of Future Resale Buyer Flow for Thomson Reserve

Competitor Analysis

The competitive landscape is in favour of Thomson Reserve. Currently there is only 1 mega development in the Thomson, Marymount and Bishan area. Thomson Reserve will serve as the 2nd mega development in direct comparison with Jadescape.

There is only 1 mega development within the Thomson, Marymount, Bishan Area

There are only 2 young developments that can match up to Thomson Reserve

From a lease life or age standpoint, the Thomson area is dominated by older condo developments that launched between the 2000s and 2010. Jadescape and AMO Residences remain the key competition that can match up to Thomson Reserve in terms of age and scale of development.

Secondary competitors are Thomson Three, Thomson Impression and Thomson Grand, which TOP’d between 2015 and 2018.

There are only 2 resale developments that are TOP after 2020

Investment Summary

Pros

• Only mega-scaled new launch in the Thomson-Bishan area since Jadescape, filling a supply void that has persisted for over 6 years
• Closest development to Upper Thomson MRT among all key Thomson competitors at 400m to TE8, ahead of Thomson Three at 420m, Thomson Impression at 500m, and Thomson Grand at 600m
• Enters resale in 2029 against an ageing competitive set, where 65% of developments in the area TOP’d before 2010
• Within 1km of Ai Tong Primary School, feeding the area’s most motivated and financially capable upgrader buyer flow
• Three distinct buyer flows from EC and BTO upgraders, resale HDB upgraders from Bishan and Toa Payoh, and resale condo owners in the Bishan-Thomson-Lentor corridor underpin future resale demand

Cons

• Projected launch PSF of $2,703 to $2,948 leaves limited margin for error, with breakeven already sitting at $2,457 psf ppr due to enbloc redevelopment costs
• Thomson location fundamentals alone do not guarantee benchmark-beating returns, as evidenced by Thomson Three averaging only $58k profit per year over 7.2 years
• Thomson Grand’s private lift lobby layout inefficiency serves as a cautionary precedent within the same location, and whether Thomson Reserve avoids the same trap remains unconfirmed at point of writing

Key Investment Questions Answered

1. Is the hype real? – Is Thomson Reserve fundamentally that strong as an investment asset.

The hype is directionally justified, but location alone is not the full answer. Thomson Reserve fits the proven RCR mega-development playbook that drove Jadescape and Chuan Park Residences’ outperformance: a supply void in new, large-scale development within an established central location.

At 1,240 units, it will be only the second mega development the Thomson-Bishan area has seen, entering a resale market in 2029 dominated by ageing stock where 65% of competing developments TOP’d before 2010.

Its 400m walk to Upper Thomson MRT and position within 1km of Ai Tong Primary School reinforce the fundamentals further.

That said, the Thomson area’s own profit data is a necessary counterweight. Thomson Three, Thomson Impression and Thomson Grand all shared the same locational advantages yet consistently fell below the $100k profit per year benchmark.

The fundamentals of Thomson Reserve as a location are strong. Whether the development itself is built to convert those fundamentals into Jadescape-level returns is a question that requires a deeper study.

2. Given that a premium will be priced into the launch price. Is it still worth buying and at what price should we refrain from entering?

A premium entry is a near certainty, and the investment case hinges on how much of that premium is justified. Our projected launch price ranges from $2,703 to $2,948 psf, derived from the enbloc land cost, incremental demolition expenses, and developer margin assumptions of 10% to 20%.

To contextualise what the market has already accepted, Chuan Park Residences – a comparable enbloc leasehold development in Lorong Chuan launched in November 2024 – is transacting at $2,836 psf after GFA harmonisation rebasing. We would apply that as the primary guardrail: a sub-$2,8xx entry is where Thomson Reserve’s pricing begins to look defensible.

Gain Clarity – Side by Side Project Comparison

There are two projects that caught your attention launching in sequence and you are unsure which to commit to. This is where objective fact-based evaluation of both projects brings clarity to your decision making process.

• Side-by-side pros and cons analysis of 2-3 projects you’re currently considering
• A second opinion on which project offers the best balance of profit potential and downside protection
• A refined shortlist of projects that best suit your investment objective

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Looking to purchase a unit in the new launch as a second property?

Check out the following articles for more insights on how to avoid ABSD:

• Decoupling Property Singapore – The Complete Guide
• How to buy a second property in Singapore without ABSD?

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